A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
